اتجاهات معدلات النمو السكاني وتوزيعها المكاني في قضاء الحلة للمدة 1987-2017
Abstract
The study of population growth is one of the most important demographic phenomena on which planners depend to meet the demands of population growth, and through knowledge of population growth, it is possible to plan for the near and distant future. On this basis, Hilla province was chosen to study the trends of population growth for the period (1997-2017). The research discussed the growth of the population during this period throughout the judiciary. The population growth by administrative units was also analyzed with an analysis of the reasons for the variation in population growth among these administrative units, as well as the study of the variation in population growth between the rural and urban areas for each period of time, explaining the factors that led to the variation of population growth between rural and urban areas. The study found that the population growth rate at the judicial level was (5.6%) during the period 1977-1987, which exceeds the population growth rate in the governorate (5.5%) and the country (3.1%), A clear decline in the period (1987-1997) reaching (3.2%). In the preparatory period (1997-2017), the population growth rate was 2.8%, in the governorate (2.9%) and in the country (2.4%). The research also found that the highest rates of growth were recorded for the rural population during the period (1987-1997), reaching (4.5%) due to the emergence of a stream of migration from cities to the countryside as a result of the conditions of the economic blockade in that period. While those rates decreased during the period (1997-2017) by (2.8%). And is expected to rise slightly for the coming years, which is expected to reach (2.9%) for the period (2017-2027) and to (3.0%) for the period (2027-2037).
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(*) The formula for the compound profit method in calculating population projections is formulated as follows:
Pn = Po 〖(1 + r)〗 ^ n
Since: Pn = means the expected population of the target year, Po = means the population in the last census, n the number of years between the last census and the future year, r annual growth rate between the last two censuses 1997 and 2007, for more, see: Abbas Fadel Al-Saadi, Population Geography, C 1, previous source, p. 304.
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